I keep thinking about future technology that will make its way into the open market.

with petrol prices so high and oil on the decrease what will be the future technolgy used to power our beloved cars?

I am all for electric, although no noise will be boring and motorsports wouldnt be as much fun atall.

I reckon in the next 10 years the range will extend and charge time will drop making electric more viable for long distance, spur of the moment road trips.

Who will be the first to Convert a polo to electric?

What is the fate of the Internal combustion engine with 30% efficency?

So what do you think will happen over the next 10-20 years with cars and power trains?

I keep thinking about future technology that will make its way into the open market.

with petrol prices so high and oil on the decrease what will be the future technolgy used to power our beloved cars?

I am all for electric, although no noise will be boring and motorsports wouldnt be as much fun atall.

I reckon in the next 10 years the range will extend and charge time will drop making electric more viable for long distance, spur of the moment road trips.

Who will be the first to Convert a polo to electric?

What is the fate of the Internal combustion engine with 30% efficency?

So what do you think will happen over the next 10-20 years with cars and power trains?

been done in last months pvw

any links?

link

http://www.clubgti.com/forum/showthread.php?t=232440

http://www.evalbum.com/preview.php?vid=3704

Edited 18 March, 201214 yr by mini_mayhem

efficiency savings, to meet the next round of emissions targets (Euro 7) manufacturers believe that 90% of the efficiency savings will come from refining current tech. however hydrogen would be the next step. also electric motorsport is not boring, you seen the Nissan Leaf Nismo RC or the Citroen Survolt? saw them both at goodwood and they were lightning quick.

Theres an electric motored beetle that does santa pod. zero noise apart from a slight humming and fast enough to do 11 second quarters!!!

Make one with a longer range and id have it.

Tbh I think a viable, full electric replacement for a car (i.e. one that charges quickly and is capable of 'spur-of-moment' trips) is still 10-15 years off and there's still plenty of oil etc for another 70 years or so, so its likely to be a while before demand is sufficient enough to drive major change

i think it will get to the point soon when petrol cars are for the rich only. And will be weekend toys / collections etc.

Well, not soon. But i think our generation will be the last to have petrol cars because its still cheaper than an electric car.

The day F1 goes electric is the day i give up on life though

Its not far off though, tesla for example. far from slow, just the range thats no good.

Nuclear energy for homes, hydrogen power owned my oil companies. There you go.

I think we're going through a transitionary period.

Petrol/diesel is still the cheapest way to drive, but mainly because the electric technology is still expensive. The LEAF for example costs £26k, and though it's <£2 per 100 miles and servicing is cheaper due to having less serviceable parts, it's still going to cost more to run because it depreciates so quickly. And it won't suit everyone - 100 miles might cover your daily mileage but if you need to go further regularly, you'll need a second car.

Not a deal-breaker for some, but horses for courses, electric won't suit the mass market until recharging is fast and ranges are long. Battery technology isn't advancing fast enough to bring the size of the battery packs down enough to make a 300 mile range feasible at the affordable end of the market. But prices will come down as residual values stabilise and economies of scale start to kick in. Not loads, though. For now they're going to be owned mainly by people with an interest in reducing smog for inner city use, or rich bods who can charge them from a renewable source at home.

Hydrogen fuel cells are a great solution - these give close to conventional cars' range, and quick refuelling times, with zero harmful tailpipe emissions at point of use. But the trouble is there's no refuelling network to support them yet, and though it's easy to make hydrogen and it's renewable, it's not so easy to compress and store. General Motors, Honda and Hyundai have all said they're planning to bring hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to market in 2015. We shall see.

For now, as I said earlier, we're in a transitionary period. Hybrids actually make a lot of sense, giving some of the advantages of zero emission motoring but without the drawback of range anxiety and being dependent on a limited charging infrastructure. Plug in hybrids are a step futher - electric range of up to 50 miles, charged from a wall socket, so you could go weeks without using any fuel then you've got a petrol or diesel engine when you need to go further.

The Chevrolet Volt/Vauxhall Ampera are interesting too - driven on an electric motor at all times, but with an efficient petrol engine to charge the battery when it runs low.

So yeah a transitionary period, but for a few decades at least we're looking at reducing petrol dependency not replacing it altogether. But I think once the infrastructure comes together hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be the way forward. Unless something else comes along.

Interesting times!

Why cant we burn ethanol?

there already is ethanol in our fuel.

In this country for some reason we haven't had a good record with the alternatives to petrol. Electric cars are pretty much too expensive and too unpopular. Other than that unless your convinced by having a hybrid over a Eco-diesel such as the Blue Motion range (which are just as good if not better economy wise in the REAL world as a hybrid) then there are no alternatives to conventional cars.

Having said that I think the Fluence from Renault is a nice looking car and things may start to change in the next few years as more and cheaper electric cars become available.

efficiency savings, to meet the next round of emissions targets (Euro 7) manufacturers believe that 90% of the efficiency savings will come from refining current tech. however hydrogen would be the next step. also electric motorsport is not boring, you seen the Nissan Leaf Nismo RC or the Citroen Survolt? saw them both at goodwood and they were lightning quick.

It's EU6 next, no idea what EU7 will hold- EU6 targets are focused on PM emissions.

Ironically, due to battery costs being so high- this allows OEMs to create a good business case for some more advanced engine technology to filter down into the mainstream.

Fiat are a good example of this with the Twinair valvetrain, Volkswagen have done compound charging and cylinder deactivation on small capacity engines now, which are traditionally the cheap dirty end of the market.

Aggressive downsizing to meet emissions targets will drive technology rich engine development now, with valves trains being either hydro-electric or 100% electric in the future, infinitely variable camshaft geometry, cylinder de-activation, and the ability for a massive performance range.

Low hanging fruit is friction reduction of current components, and mass reduction will also become more common place, with the cost of coatings reducing as large OEMs get involved, also as simulation and analysis software has improved within the last few years, it’s opened doors for improvements in design.

Regarding electric cars, or hydrogen fuel cells etc. The immediate future (present) is in REEVs (range extended electric vehicles) that offer the normal Monday-Friday commuter a chance to run on pure electric, with the auxiliary power unit providing charge for longer trips at the weekend.

Alex- Remember the Volt is a parallel hybrid, so has the potential to just drive on the 1.4 motor, say at high speed low state of charge. I was impressed when I drove the car, even with low SOC and the APU in ‘mountain mode’ it’s not too intrusive, quite strange being at a set of traffic lights with an engine doing 2000rpm full load though!

And it won't suit everyone - 100 miles might cover your daily mileage but if you need to go further regularly, you'll need a second car.

You touch on a point there, which has been screaming at me in the face for ages, and i don't see how it's not obvious to everyone.

Because that is virtually everyone!

Who TF drives more than 100miles to work? Some do, my auntie lives in Cambridge and works in London but i don't know anyone else who gets close to her journey. Yet she could drive to work in an electric car, put it on charge at work (solar station, staff car park powered by the roof), then have it topped up fully charged for the journey home..

Sure, there are cases where mileage does throw out electric - working vehicles off site (delivery/courrier), for example.

But as far as personal transport is concerned, only those rare long journeys are a problem. So you either have an alternative fuel option, can borrow one, or use public transport (train/coach) on said rare occasions.

Hydrogen is next...

Hydrogen seems a good idea. All i see with electric cars is traffic jams caused by people running out of charge/batteries killing themselves

Alex- Remember the Volt is a parallel hybrid, so has the potential to just drive on the 1.4 motor, say at high speed low state of charge. I was impressed when I drove the car, even with low SOC and the APU in ‘mountain mode’ it’s not too intrusive, quite strange being at a set of traffic lights with an engine doing 2000rpm full load though!

Not directly though. The engine never provides power to the wheels, it assists the motor which then powers the wheels at high speeds and under heavy throttle. When the battery runs low it uses one of the motors as a generator to charge the battery, but the wheels are only ever turned by the electric motor.

One of the major problems currently with the batteries is the lifetime of the unit themselves. As with any battery, constant charging causes degredation of the battery, meaning shorter journeys. These then have to be replaced, at great cost. Obviously advances will be made, but until this is cured, I don't see a future for electric cars of this sort.

And ethanol/biofuels are a no no since the required land to run all vehicles in britain alone is around 8 times greater than the current arable land available. If we even start to go this way, you may have to make the decision to eat, or drive. Even if we import the fuel, food prices are going to be increased massively as fuel companies compete for land against the food producers. If you hadn't noticed, food prices have increased dramatically (inflation of around 6% a few years ago) which is due to americas push towards biofuels (we import a lot of grain from the US). It's a dead end, unless we decide to starve the third world

Alex- Remember the Volt is a parallel hybrid, so has the potential to just drive on the 1.4 motor, say at high speed low state of charge. I was impressed when I drove the car, even with low SOC and the APU in ‘mountain mode’ it’s not too intrusive, quite strange being at a set of traffic lights with an engine doing 2000rpm full load though!

Not directly though. The engine never provides power to the wheels, it assists the motor which then powers the wheels at high speeds and under heavy throttle. When the battery runs low it uses one of the motors as a generator to charge the battery, but the wheels are only ever turned by the electric motor.

The engine can drive the wheels directly - just depends which of the clutch packs are open/closed as to what the torque path is. Their clutch packs, two e-machines and planetary gearset mean it's one of the most complex hybrid drivetrains out there - but also a clever one.

The "Dual motor extended" mode is when the engine drives the wheels:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Volt#Drivetrain

The Wikipedia assessment is reasonably accurate, though overly simplified as the control strategy is somewhat complex.

Edit: Click to download Chevrolet's guide on drive modes, "Two Motor Extended-Range Combined Driving" is the section to read. Note that one of the e-machines has to be applying some torque otherwise the planetary gearset can't transmit the power - so this mode is a parallel hybrid mode, not a pure ICE mode.

One of the major problems currently with the batteries is the lifetime of the unit themselves. As with any battery, constant charging causes degredation of the battery, meaning shorter journeys. These then have to be replaced, at great cost. Obviously advances will be made, but until this is cured, I don't see a future for electric cars of this sort.

Nissan are offering 8 years warranty on the Leaf battery, and claim circa 70% original rated capacity after 10 years. That's not so bad when compared to a mobile 'phone or r/c car - but then there's a lot more going on to control and condition the battery in the automotive environment. I suspect that just as people today won't thrash an engine from cold and try to avoid short journeys, our car owning habits could adapt to sympathetically using an EV to maximise battery life.

They're far from perfect yet, but not quite as bad as most people assume - the average person's exposure to rechargable Lithium Ion batteries generally is limited to consumer electronics.

Thought I'd elaborate a bit more from the engineer's side of the fence - I've been working with hybrids for 7 years, and pure EVs for the last 2 so have a degree of first-hand experience. Am probably one of the few that's driven an EV in -40°C ambients as well as +40°C!

EVs

Cost of batteries will continue to be an issue for some time, but if the OEMs can hit the volumes then the cost will come down - and significantly if the figures I've seen are correct. The trouble is hitting the volumes in the first place! This isn't surprising given the costly technology that's available in the average shopping hatchback these days, but when you're shifting volumes in the millions the development costs are somewhat diluted!

Charging infrastructure needs development, but top-up charges every night at home actually isn't that scary in terms of power requirements so I don't quite buy into this being such a serious issue.

Rapid charging will be an issue due to battery life impacts as well as lack of infrastructure. Most homes in the UK don't have 3-phase power, so the ~10kW electric cooker style supply may be the short-term practical limit. This is only 3 times as fast as charging from a standard socket, so not exactly rapid...

Some people live in flats, or on streets with no off-street parking, or where parking spaces are difficult to find. An EV is naff-all use to you then if you can't always access a charging post!

Hybrids

For the very select few, a mild hybrid (e.g. Prius) might make sense. But I think for most a decent diesel is a far far better bet when real life fuel economy is taken into account, as well as performance.

Range-extended EVs start to make a lot more sense in this area though, a vehicle that's a pure EV for all/most of your commute but that can deliver hybrid levels of fuel economy on a long journey. It'll still be beaten by a diesel up and down a motorway doing long journeys, but for your commuting and town driving it gives EV levels of economy to maximise the benefit. At least that's the theory...

I think hydrogen has the fundamental problem of distribution and storage. It's not heavy, but does need compressing shitloads to get enough into a vehicle to give it a decent range. Heavily compressing it isn't easy or cheap.

They'll become cheap when they're needed more - like hydrogen will be more usable when we lack fossil fuels more and more! EV's surprise me at work, creep up on me!

One of the major problems currently with the batteries is the lifetime of the unit themselves. As with any battery, constant charging causes degredation of the battery, meaning shorter journeys. These then have to be replaced, at great cost. Obviously advances will be made, but until this is cured, I don't see a future for electric cars of this sort.

And ethanol/biofuels are a no no since the required land to run all vehicles in britain alone is around 8 times greater than the current arable land available. If we even start to go this way, you may have to make the decision to eat, or drive. Even if we import the fuel, food prices are going to be increased massively as fuel companies compete for land against the food producers. If you hadn't noticed, food prices have increased dramatically (inflation of around 6% a few years ago) which is due to americas push towards biofuels (we import a lot of grain from the US). It's a dead end, unless we decide to starve the third world

That all depends on what crop you use to harvest for the ethanol. A good few years ago now there was a GM wheatgrass being developed for harsh desert environments, basically it could be grown in barren land, not very high yielding at all, but could be grown in places that are currently useless for crops. Solved the fuel vs food debate, but I guess has it fair share of problems (most being political). Sugarcane and sugarbeat are favourites I believe as the yeild is far greater, and I think there's one less process to go through if you start with a sugar crop.

Alex- See Andy's reply, ICE can transmit drive to the wheels- honest!

If the yield is low, then it hasnt solved the debate at all. Like I've said, just to supply us, we need much more land than is available. Then consider the demands of America, China, India and all the other emerging countries, Africa will want a slice of the pie soon too. On top of this, China and India are both growing in numbers, and in their taste for a British diet i.e. meat based. The amount of land required for cattle (although most indians wont eat beef) and other livestock is huge compared to using that land as arable to feed people. So both the emerging economies are going to be demanding more land for either food, or these wonderful biofuels. Its not as easy as growing a type of grass that can survive arid conditions. Once it gets too desperate, they'll begin irrigating these areas to produce food, thus reducing space for fuel.

If the yield is low, then it hasnt solved the debate at all. Like I've said, just to supply us, we need much more land than is available. Then consider the demands of America, China, India and all the other emerging countries, Africa will want a slice of the pie soon too. On top of this, China and India are both growing in numbers, and in their taste for a British diet i.e. meat based. The amount of land required for cattle (although most indians wont eat beef) and other livestock is huge compared to using that land as arable to feed people. So both the emerging economies are going to be demanding more land for either food, or these wonderful biofuels. Its not as easy as growing a type of grass that can survive arid conditions. Once it gets too desperate, they'll begin irrigating these areas to produce food, thus reducing space for fuel.

What are your figures based on regarding ethanol production, to supply the 5% currently in our fuel, or to supply an alternative i.e E100?

Sugarcane for ethanol in Brazil is currently their 3rd largest crop - yet they supply 30% of the world's ethanol, production will only get more efficient as time goes on, and as demands from nations like Africa are currently small in comparison to their potential for production, I'd be surprised if an oil company wasn't exploring the option of sowing the seed accross the deserts.

You're right as there's more demand on resources and land prices go up, and it becomes more financially viable to invest in new land areas, exactly like as the price of oil rises, it becomes financially viable to explore deeper and find new oil fields, that years ago didn't make financial sense to drill.

I think in the UK we need to look towards tidal power- being as it's a constant